Fear and Loathing in pre-election Mexico

I was planning on profiling the presidential candidates over the last few weeks, but a lack of daily internet and a lack of good information has been hampering my efforts. Today I'll instead focus on a trend I have noticed over the last week around the Mexican Presidential elections.

A couple of days ago I was talking with on of my friends who owns a Mac retailer in Mexico City and Guadalajara. He mentioned that sales to professionals and businesses had dropped off in the last few months because of a weakening Mexican economy. He put the blame for the economy square on the sholders of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) the candidate for the leftist Partido de la Revolución Democrática and either the leader or 2nd place candidate in most opinin polls. Businesses fear that a AMLO win in July will mean socialist government reforms and possible state ownership in key industries. Whether this perception is justified doesn't seem to matter, it is affecting business and my friend was worried. AMLO seems to have also lost some credibility with voters after skipping the first presidential debate on April 25th.

Today the Associated Press reported on a poll conducted accross Mexico which indicated that 50% of Mexicans fear that the government is loosing control. In April, the heads of two police officers were posted outside of a government office in what many believe was retaliation for the death of four narco-terrorists in January. This is only the most visible sign in a highly violent battle between the government and drug cartels.

The EZLN (or Zapatistas) have been increasingly vocal and angry over the death of a teenager in clashes with police officers in San Salvador Atenco on May 3. Violence also erupted in late April in a dispute between steelworkers and police when the government tried to stop a strike in Lazaro Cardenas.

Increasing tension is seen to help the traditional leadership party of the PRI and thier candidate Roberto Madrazo and hurt both front runners AMLO and Felipe Calderon of the ruling PAN party. President Fox's (also of the PAN) government has been taking a lot of blame as of late for the escalating violence with unions (a traditional PRI alley), leftist groups and narco-terrorists.

Posted by Noah Brimhall at May 17, 2006 02:34 PM